Although the subsidy policy has not yet been implemented, the overall trend of the domestic market has gradually become clear. First of all, it needs to be clear that photovoltaic projects starting in 2019 can be divided into two categories, one is unsubsidized projects, and the other is subsidized projects. How the photovoltaic market will develop in 2019 depends on how much market demand these two types of projects can bring.

From the perspective of enterprises, in addition to market demand, the rate of return of the project is also a key factor in determining future development. What is the rate of return of photovoltaic projects in 2019?

Yield is king

For the rate of return of the project, we still need to analyze the unsubsidized project and the subsidized project. First of all, from the perspective of subsidized projects, the policy of limiting subsidy funds of 3 billion yuan is likely to be implemented. In this way, no matter how much the installed capacity of subsidized projects is, the income generated by them is almost limited.

According to the new policy, except for poverty alleviation projects, household projects and a small number of demonstration projects, all other subsidized projects need to obtain scale indicators through bidding. The model of obtaining scale indicators through bidding has been adopted by the frontrunner plan projects before, which means that ordinary projects in 2019 have tended to be “frontrunners”.

Referring to the bidding of the frontrunners that repeatedly hit new lows in price in the past two years, this year's bidding for subsidized projects will also be very lively. It is precisely because of the existence of bidding that the cost of photovoltaic power generation of the front-runner projects is close to or even lower than the grid parity standard, but at the same time, the rate of return of these projects has dropped accordingly.

From the experience of the leader project, we can foresee that the grid-connected price of photovoltaic power generation for subsidized projects in the future will be driven lower and lower by the bidding mode, and the cost of photovoltaic power generation will gradually approach the grid parity under the limit of this price. standard. Therefore, unlike the previous fixed subsidies, the yield of subsidized projects in 2019 will decline sharply.

Therefore, under the limit of 3 billion yuan of subsidy funds and the control of the bidding model, the yield of subsidized projects will drop sharply until it approaches the cost line. In this way, the size of its installed capacity has little meaning.

From the perspective of unsubsidized projects, since such projects cannot enjoy state subsidies, their rate of return is basically difficult to compare with subsidized projects. However, judging from the "Notice on Actively Promoting Wind Power and Photovoltaic Power Generation Unsubsidized and Parity Internet Work" released some time ago, the rate of return of unsubsidized projects largely depends on the implementation of the policy.

Only if the above policies can be implemented to the greatest extent, the "non-technical cost" of unsubsidized projects can be effectively reduced, the project rate of return can be guaranteed, and finally unsubsidized projects can be successfully promoted on a large scale in 2019.

Even in some regions with superior resource conditions, the rate of return of unsubsidized projects may be equal to that of some subsidized projects. In general, the rate of return of unsubsidized projects is highly variable, and is greatly affected by the "non-technical cost" factor. In an ideal world, the rate of return on an unsubsidized project might be at the same level as a subsidized project.

To sum up, the rate of return of subsidized projects in 2019 may continue to drop, while the rate of return of unsubsidized projects will hardly perform well. Under such circumstances, the newly installed capacity of photovoltaic projects in 2019 can no longer represent the development of the industry as in previous years. Because under the same scale, the income generated by the scale of new projects in 2019 is quite different from the previous year.

Therefore, for the photovoltaic market in 2019, the yield rate is king, and only those companies with strong cost control capabilities can have a place.

Overseas competition becomes the key

From the above analysis, it can be found that there may still be a good scale of newly installed capacity in my country in 2019, but the revenue generated by these scales will decline sharply. The size of the market seems to remain the same, but the cake is invisibly smaller. From this point of view, the domestic market in 2019 is still unable to restore the vitality of 2017.

Unlike the domestic market, the overseas market has blossomed everywhere in 2019. In recent years, there has been a wave of clean energy in the world, while the photovoltaic markets in Europe, America, Japan and other countries are mature and stable, and the Latin American and African markets are in the ascendant, and in many regions with good resource conditions, the cost of photovoltaic power generation has been lower than the local thermal power price. In contrast, the potential and opportunities of overseas markets have emerged. This is why competition in overseas markets has become the key to the development of current photovoltaic companies.

And before you know it, the battle for overseas markets has already broken out. From the financial reports of photovoltaic companies, it can be found that companies that still achieved good performance after last year's "531" have one thing in common, that is, the prosperity of overseas business. Representative companies include JinkoSolar, GCL Integration, LONGi, etc. The importance of overseas markets has received greater attention from companies in 2019. Since the New Year, many companies have been actively exploring overseas markets.

According to reports, in the first half of the year, orders from domestic first-tier PV module companies including Jinko, JA Solar, Trina Solar, LONGi Solar and Risen Energy are almost full, and most of the production capacity of these first-tier companies is supplying foreign orders. In addition, news of domestic companies taking overseas orders is not uncommon.

The "patent infringement" incident that has attracted the attention of the whole industry in recent days also shows that the competition in overseas markets has entered a white-hot stage.

All clues show that although the domestic market is still in the wait-and-see period before the official release of the policy, the battle for the overseas market has already started. While the domestic market continues to be weak, the performance of overseas markets will become the main profit point for major photovoltaic companies.

Summary

The market is ever-changing, and the changes have already begun. At present, the photovoltaic market has become more and more globalized, and the days when the domestic market can only be done well are gone forever; the current photovoltaic market is becoming more and more mature and stable, and only companies with excellent cost control ability can Get a piece of the pie in the future market.